Tinubu: Consequences of state of emergency in Rivers, by Abayomi Odunowo

In a move that has sent shockwaves through the political landscape of Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State. This contentious decision, framed as a necessity for restoring order amid escalating violence and unrest, may in fact veer dangerously close to a power grab, raising critical concerns about the implications for democracy, governance, and civil society in Nigeria. We need to address the fundamental aspects of this declaration, as they hold profound ramifications for the administration and the people it claims to serve.

The decision has effectively dismantled the state’s elected leadership, removing Governor Siminalayi Fubara, Deputy Governor, and all State Assembly members, thereby handing full administrative control of Rivers State to federal authorities. Appointing Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas (Rtd) as the Administrator underscores this transfer, which raises alarming questions about the erosion of democratic norms in Nigeria. Such a drastic move implies a troubling precedent: when the federal government feels threatened politically, state authorities can simply be removed from power and replaced with appointed officials. This transition represents not just a shift in power but also a concerning overreach into the autonomy of state governance, undermining the very essence of Nigeria’s federal structure.

The declaration’s legality rests on Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution, which prescribes the conditions under which a state of emergency may be declared. However, there is considerable evidence to suggest that the situation in Rivers State may not meet the threshold for such an extreme response. Instead, many observers have pointed to the underlying political conflicts as the real motivation behind this declaration. The ruling party’s reliance on a Supreme Court ruling to justify federal intervention only adds to the uncertainty because the ruling did not explicitly endorse the type of federal takeover seen in Rivers State, it opens the door for legal challenges. Opposition groups are likely to contest this declaration, arguing that it represents an unlawful overreach by the federal government.

The upheaval in Rivers State is particularly concerning within the fractured landscape of Nigerian politics. With the backdrop of an ongoing struggle between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor Nyesom Wike, this declaration could serve to further unbalance political dynamics within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Wike’s faction, backed by President Tinubu, may view this as an opportunity to fortify their influence, while Fubara’s supporters may retaliate against the perceived injustice. Consequently, the outcome of this executive decision may not only deepen divisions within Rivers State but may also encourage opposition parties, such as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), to frame this act as a direct assault on democratic principles, sparking potential unrest nationally.

Adding to the tension, the National Assembly has a critical role in approving this declaration within two days. Failure to secure its backing would force the President to reevaluate his strategy—leading to a potential embarrassment. Lawmakers from the South-South region, most of whom oppose the administration, may mount a vigorous campaign against the emergency declaration, cementing political polarization. A rejection could serve as a significant blow to the President’s standing, one that may embolden his opponents and indicate growing fractures within his administration.

Amid all these political machinations, the public’s perception is paramount. While the speech surrounding the declaration alludes to issues of pipeline vandalization and militant threats, many citizens in Rivers State may question whether these concerns truly warranted such authoritarian measures. The removal of elected officials without due process could incite public backlash or protests, echoing the citizens’ desire for democratic governance. Heightened security presence may further risk escalating tensions when the focus should be on restoring peace and trust in governance.

The ramifications of this state of emergency stretch beyond immediate governance issues. The political landscape in Rivers State is critical as Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections. If the Tinubu administration can tilt the balance of power in favor of Wike and his allies, it may solidify APC’s control of the state. However, mismanagement of this intervention could concentrate public dissatisfaction, driving voters toward opposition parties. Such dynamics illustrate the delicate landscape of democracy in Nigeria, where power struggles can yield dire consequences.

The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is fraught with complexity, signaling alarming potential shifts in Nigeria’s political culture. Though pitched as a remedy for unrest, this measure risks normalizing federal interference in state governance and undermining the authority of elected officials. The ability of opposition parties, civil society, and the judiciary to respond effectively in the coming days will be pivotal in determining the future course of democratic governance in Nigeria. We arrive at a daunting crossroads where vigilance is necessary to protect democratic integrity in Nigeria and ensure that the nation honors its foundational principles.

Otunba Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo
National Chairman AATSG
Mobile: +2349053535322
AATSG Media.